Bihar Election results: A wake up call for PM Modi

While PM Modi after crushing  defeat of NDA in Bihar  Elections is currently being completely written off by political analysts and  his adversaries; however if PM Modi heeds to  wake up call emerging from  Bihar elections, and acts on the same, he may rise like a phoenix and bounce back once  again. If it has happened recently with Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi & Lalu & Nitish in Bihar, why it  can’t happen with PM Narendra Modi, when three and half years of his  tenure is still left?

The election results of Bihar, much to the expectation of all, have  revived re-energized,  reinvigorated all those forces in media, political parties, so called secular & human right activists/organizations, who had earlier opposed Modi for twelve  long years to the hilt, always portraying him in India and abroad as the most communal, evil and wicked person on the earth. However much to their chagrin, during all those twelve long years, despite their fierce opposition of Modi, instead  of weakening him, motivated him to go from strength  to strength and as a consequence Modi humbled all his naysayers by winning three assembly elections in  Gujarat consecutively and later on becoming PM of the country bucking all the opposition from all these hatemongers against him. However, all these anti Modi forces, even after Modi became PM, didn’t  reconcile. They were/are unable to digest , how Modi can become a  PM and continue to be so despite so much of stiff opposition from them. In a nutshell, they were down but not out in their anti Modi-ism. They were looking for opportunities to strike back at him. Their first moment of glory came, when BJP lost the elections very badly  in Delhi. After long time there was huge smile on the faces of these people over an embarrassing defeat of Modi in Delhi. However their crowning moment of glory has come now, when BJP has lost elections in Bihar so terribly to Lalu-Nitish. As they could smell the defeat of NDA in Bihar at least two weeks ahead of actual results, they all were keying up for actual  results day. And much to their expectation and delight, NDA lost in Bihar and lost so convincingly and terribly to Lalu &  Nitish, who after 2014 General  Elections, were being totally written off by all  the political analysts.Now during this crowning moment of their glory, these hatemongers  are unable to hide  glee from their faces. The Bihar elections results, which was majorly  an outcome of better caste plus minority community arithmetic of Nitish-Lalu combine over  NDA, is being interpreted as victory of secularism over communal politics of BJP and no confidence of people expressed in eighteen months’ old Modi led NDA rule at centre. All these anti Modi forces are so much gloating over defeat of BJP in Bihar that in this defeat they are visualizing rout of BJP from different regions one by one and by mid of 2019, they expect their long time bête noire Narendra Modi to be wiped off completely  from national  politics.

Well, as the situation stands today, defeat of BJP/NDA in upcoming assembly elections and finally Narendra Modi led NDA in 2019 general elections mayn’t be a far fetched imagination. As it looks like out of several states(West Bengal, Punjab, Tamil  Nadu, Pondicherry,UP,Assam etc, where assembly elections are due in next two years )BJP seems  to have brightest prospects of capturing power in Assam only and considering current disenchantment of  people with Modi Govt at centre,  even demoralizing defeat(like Cong’s in 2014) of Narendra  Modi led NDA in 2019 mayn’t be too surprising.

However, before visualizing such a demoralizing prospects for Narendra Modi and BJP/NDA, we must remember, nothing  is permanent in politics. As a political  leader/party, one may be considered to be dead; however quite possible you may rise like a  phoenix just after 6 months-1 year only. Who would have imagined in May  2014 that after such a crushing defeat of Arvind Kejriwal led AAP nationally,  he would bounce back with thunder in Delhi  assembly elections just within  eight months only. And again,after 2014 general  elections, when  Nitish and lalu were being totally written off would win the Bihar elections with almost 3/4^th majority just within eighteen months only. In Politics, you can’t expect any scenario to  be permanent.  If within a short  period(8 months-18 months),  if Arvind  Kejriwal, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad can rise like phoenix, how  is  it that Narendra Modi with 42 months of tenure still left,why can’t  he bounce back like his political  adversaries? Well answer to the same lies with Narendra Modi himself. In case, Narendra Modi considers  results of Bihar assembly elections  as a wake up  call for him and utilizes learning  from his failures  to change his conduct, the way his Govt and BJP as an organization are functioning currently, I am sure, Narendra Modi, with so much of good will  still being enjoyed among his followers,  can again bounce  back. However for that he may have to drastically change himself the way he has been conducting and the way his Govt/Party has been functioning  currently.

Change of perception of a  Flamboyant PM with Boisterous idiosyncrasies needed: -As, I come across  feedback from various  people, who were/continue to be his  die hard supporters, Narendra Modi caught the imagination of people as a leader having  very humble family/chaiwalaa roots; however  over last eighteen months has  assumed an image of a flamboyant  PM  in the minds of ordinary people. He is perceived to be very ostentatious and extravagant the way  he dresses himself ( his 10 lakh suit story just before Delhi elections cost his image  very high).His boisterous interactions with foreign leaders and people while being on foreign tours also don’t seem to gel well with people who earlier looked at him as a chaiwalaa with humble family roots and now   is unable  to reconcile with his new found flamboyant image. As, I feel and understand, Narendra Modi, in future has to consciously help shed such image of himself recently created in the minds of people.

Overdose of Foreign visits need to be curbed:-His overdose of foreign visits during last eighteen months also seem to have spoiled his image among the masses to a great extent. While, a limited no. of  people, who understand economic/political sense of his numerous foreign tours, common masses seem to be completely disillusioned with the same. For them,  when  on the domestic front, several issues, need urgent attention and action from PM, his unending series of  foreign tours appear to be his wrong priority.

Wrong prioritization of Goals:-Wrong prioritization of social/economic development goals also appear to be failing of PM Narendra Modi. While his swachch bharat, Yoga and beti bachao campaigns may be great social campaigns; however they fail to strike right chords  of common masses as these social campaigns, don’t help resolve their daily needs/problems related to roti, Kapdaa, makaan, rojgaar,price rise of food articles, corruption in their  daily walks of life etc.

Wrong prortization of goals also appear to be reflected in the development vision  of PM Narendra Modi. While Smart city, Digital India, Make in India campaigns may be great development goals for country; however they all have long gestation period and in order to see them happening before his  eyes under his leadership, Narendra Modi need at least two more tenures as PM  and  for that he need to win two more elections. I doubt, when people have become so restless  within eighteen months, whether they would  like to wait till that long.  Talk of Launching of Bullet trains also don’t seem to be going down well with masses. While Indian Railways continue to struggle providing even basic comforts to people travelling in normal trains; talking of Bullet train sounds like cruel joke to masses. Narendra Modi, while continuing to pursue the above long term  economic goals, may do well by picking up  short term economic goals, which can be achieved quickly and help solve/ improve daily economic needs of  people.

Change in Perception about being  pro corporate/pro industrial houses needed:-Govt. should try to change perception of people about the  Govt from being pro corporate  to pro poor. Some how  due to  a systematic  campaign of the adversaries of the govt., Modi Govt is perceived by common masses to be pro industrial  houses especially closer to couple of industrial houses. At the  moment, most of the vital parameters of economy viz. fiscal deficit, current account deficit, foreign exchange reserves, Inflation etc. appear to be in much better health and GDP forecasts for next three years also appear to be optimistic compared to last three years. This is the time Govt may afford to be slightly more generous towards common masses. While subsidy may be a bad form of  economics; however small doses of subsidy giving relief to common masses on various utilities/services provided by the govt, may without burdening economy much may give relief to common masses  and change  the perception of the people  about the Govt. from being pro corporate to  pro aam aadmi.

More Welfare orientation in approach needed:-Govt should also avoid conducting like a private industrial houses, always on look out for ways and means to fill their coffers at the cost of their customers. Sound economics can’t be the sole  concern of a Govt responsible  towards welfare  of the common masses. In the present context , in the name of clean India initiative imposing swachh Bharat cess of 0.5 % on all services liable for  service tax has become a hugely unpopular measure and everyone is feeling bitter about it. Similarly, doubling cancellation charges  by railways also seem to be pinching every common man travelling by railways. Common masses look at both these measures as desperate attempts  of Govt to fill  its coffer at the discomfort of common masses. Do these unpopular measures help  the Modi  govt? Even If they are trying to fill the coffer through these  unpopular measures, they are doing for whom? For future Governments of Congress or 3^rd front? Through these unpopular measures, they can only antagonize the masses and such unpopular measures will  only cause them lose future  elections and hence pursuing some of these  unpopular measures are severely proscribed.

Promises must be fulfilled timely and completely:-Also, Govt need to be more pragmatic while dealing with popular demands of different sections of society. It is important that Govt should be seen fulfilling its promises without any delay while  dealing with  popular and genuine demands of people. If you delay fulfilling  your promises and seem to be meeting the same half way after long drawn protests from  people, as a Govt , despite meeting the demands of people ultimately, you lose good  will  of the people. One Rank, One Pension is  a classic  case of the same.PM assured ex service men about OROP and got their  votes in drove; however after coming to  power delayed implementation of the same for  a very long time. And later on despite  its implementation, due to disagreements on cut off dates and exclusion of a large  section of retired defence staff members,  the move has left vast sections  of it (retired as well as  current staff)dissatisfied. Should the Govt not realize that by meeting their demand only half  way, it has antagonized millions of ex and existing defence staff members and their families across India and for that  Narendra Modi Govt led BJP may have to pay heavy price for the same in future assembly elections  and ultimately during general elections  in 2019?Same is the case of Delhi High court amendment bill.Although Govt has ultimately passed it after popular protests from thousands of District Court lawyers from Delhi; however the govt took so much of time  in implementing  it that it has created hardly any good will  among the larger sections of protesting lawyers despite implementing it, the way it was meant. Point  is Modi Govt should be  seen to be fulfilling its promises timely otherwise even  if same  are met but after long protests, it won’t  create any good will  and mayn’t help him in future elections. Also, the Govt  should know,  it has to add votes from different sections  of society in small increments and hence can’t afford to ignore any of them.

Controlling Price rise of food and Vegetables:-Giving cushion to common masses from rising prices of essential food & vegetable items should be of biggest concern for Modi Govt as ignoring the same has partly cost it two  recent elections, higher onion prices during Delhi  assembly elections and higher pulse prices during Bihar  assembly elections. . While, inflation as a whole has come down quite low during last eighteen months; however prices of food items and vegetables continue to  be on higher side. Modi  Govt must know that prices of food items & vegetables hurt common masses especially housewives most and hence the same may be accorded topmost priority by the Govt. As, it was  recently  noticed  that women participated during voting for Bihar elections more than their counterparts and they expressed their anger against soaring pulse prices by voting massively against NDA.

Generation of Jobs,  should  be topmost priority:-Generation of jobs should  also be of topmost priority for the govt. Narendra Modi should  have remembered that  his  govt  was  voted  to  power majorly  with the support of youth as they hoped that Narendra Modi’s  development agenda will take care of their unemployment issue. However, on this front, Govt has failed miserably so far. While, there  is hardly employment generation by private  sector because of poor business conditions, even Govt continues to impose freeze on hiring at differnet levels in various  govt organizations.  Until govt unleashes economic reforms  swiftly in order to boost economic activities and generate jobs  fast,  govt would continue to fail to  enthuse youth, which continues to remain  disenchanted  towards Modi Govt. For  generating jobs, Govt can’t solely depend upon large  industrial houses rather it should support SME (Small Medium Enterprises) sector also for faster job creation.

Cabinet lacking in enough talent:-It appears that Modi cabinet  seems  to be lacking in enough talent. PM Modi  can’t continue to count on ability of  a  few senior ministers alone  for delivery. Governance and administration require experience. Age can’t be an inhibiting  factor in performance, provided one is physically fit and mentally alert. After one and  half years, PM Modi must realize that putting an embargo on the basis of 75+ years, he is  deprived of experience of some of the promising elders in his ministry. For example, General Khanduri  despite being on the wrong side of age, might have  proved a very successful  minister as he  had  earlier proved in the ministry  of Vajpayee Ji. Example of success of Metro Man Sreedharan as Head of DMRC, while  being 75+ years  of age, shows  that age always can’t be an inhibiting  factor in performance.

Projection of Credible CM face for each state needed:-On the political front, Narendra Modi can’t continue to solely depend upon his individual charisma alone to take his party through in state assembly elections. Now people  have grown wiser, they tend to distinguish between demands for Parliamentary and state assembly elections. After parliamentary elections, BJP could win three elections in Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra riding on the back of popularity of Modi soon after parliamentary elections due to two reasons: firstly,PM’s personal popularity remained very high till then,secondly, BJP didn’t have to fight a credible face on the other side. However, as soon as BJP had to confront a credible CM face on the other side, personal charisma  of PM Modi  didn’t help it sail through as  people of Delhi thought while Modi was a better option for PM at the centre, for local level , Arvind Kejriwal was  a better option for CM .Same has happened  in Bihar too. As people  of Bihar had  a credible CM option for them, they preferred him over BJP, which didn’t offer any CM face during  Bihar elections. Point is from next time onwards, while  Modi may campaign extensively however he shouldn’t be seen to be taking on clear CM  faces from other side.The need for hour  is to develop more of Shivrajs, Ramans for different states so that BJP can offer clear credible  CM option from their  side  to people. It may also insulate PM personally from direct personality contests from adversary sides. Delhi is a classic case. In the absence of any powerful  face from its side at state level, who can engage Arvind Kejriwal on local issues, he is found to be engaged in direct personality battles with PM Modi. Hope,  Nitish doesn’t do the same from now  onwards. Until, BJP has strong & credible local CM faces like Shivraj Chauhan and Raman Singh, who  can insulate PM  Modi from direct personality contest with local leaders from states,  PM unnecessarily will continue to be dragged into needless duel with local leaders from adversary sides.

No deviation from development agenda:-BJP can’t lose focus from development agenda which was its mainstay during 2014 General elections.As results of last two assembly elections may show any deviation from the same and to personal attacks may backfire. Personal attacks on Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi & on Lalu and Nitish in Bihar, instead  of denting their image/poll  prospects, amassed huge sympathy for them.

 Hotheads conducting like Hindu Talibans must be reined in:-Also, PM Modi should rein in those often conducting like hindu talibans.Hindus are liberal and they don’t like radicalization on religious issues. While Modi Ji should continue to stick to hindutva in a positive but subtle manner  like always, he should rein in his hot  heads  making offensive & abusive statements against minorities. Such uncalled for statements, unite/polarize minorities to vote against BJP decisively without any corresponding polarization among Hindus for  BJP.In this  regard, RSS and  its affiliates  may be advised  to  work for  food, health,education, employment of  poor masses among  hindus and thus improve its  access and acceptability among poor hindus.RSS and its  affiliates  must know, they can’t unite  hindu community until  they work for health, education,food and employment of poor masses. Sadly, despite, several decades of their existence,  their appeal seems to  be more among upper caste and slightly better off hindus  only.This is the reason, why even BJP has lesser appeal among lesser affluent sections of society.Until, BJP doesn’t improve its access and acceptability among poorer sections of society, its victory can’t be consistent.As Raman Singh in Chattisgarh & Shivraj Singh Chauhan in M.P. through their various economic measures have improved their  acceptability among poorer sections of society, they continue to be returned to power in their states.

More seriousness needed in bringing back black money:-Most importantly, Modi Govt must deliver  on its promises made on bringing back black  money. While people mayn’t expect the promise of PM modi of transferring 15 lakh to individual accounts of  everybody  in literal  sense; however Govt must be seen to be making serious efforts at least  of bringing back black money. Until Govt really catches few big fishes and  prosecute and punish them, common masses may continue to feel  ditched by Modi  Govt on its  poll promises  made on black money.

In a nutshell, PM Modi has  to go back  to its  poll manifesto and try to fulfill  them one by one silently without making any boisterous claims. After one and half years, even if PM Modi achieves 30% of its poll promises, his credibility with voters shall  be restored and he will be voted back to power once again as supporters  of PM Modi continue  to exist in large no and continue to love him  from core of  their hearts.Once delivery of PM Modi starts showing on the ground,he will  retrieve all his  support, which he has lost during recent months.

While, it may look extremely disappointing scenario currently for  PM Modi for future assembly elections and 2019 General elections; however once he is seen to  be delivering, he will  again bounce back. All right  thinking people  may hope  and pray that PM Modi  gets back into  groove and start delivering, what people initially expected of him.If it happens, country will be fortunate as country  needs Modi for at least one  more term after the current  one so that Modi achieves  the dreams shown by him  to millions  of Indians  to help India become a nation counted among  the most developed and powerful nations of the world.

Will Modi Deliver?Well, as we know, Modi has the potential to fulfill the dream he showed to people  in 2014; however whether he delivers it or not shall depend  upon his will power and determination. If he has learnt lessons well from poll  debacles in Delhi & Bihar and shows commitment to improve, he will  be a winner,  otherwise BJP’s position in parliament after 2019 elections will   be a  mirror image  of  Congress after 2014 parliament elections.