While PM Modi after crushing
defeat of NDA in Bihar Elections
is currently being completely written off by political analysts and his adversaries; however if PM Modi heeds
to wake up call emerging from Bihar elections, and acts on the same, he may
rise like a phoenix and bounce back once
again. If it has happened recently with Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi &
Lalu & Nitish in Bihar, why it can’t
happen with PM Narendra Modi, when three and half years of his tenure is still left?
The election results of Bihar,
much to the expectation of all, have
revived re-energized,
reinvigorated all those forces in media, political parties, so called
secular & human right activists/organizations, who had earlier opposed Modi
for twelve long years to the hilt,
always portraying him in India and abroad as the most communal, evil and wicked
person on the earth. However much to their chagrin, during all those twelve
long years, despite their fierce opposition of Modi, instead of weakening him, motivated him to go from
strength to strength and as a
consequence Modi humbled all his naysayers by winning three assembly elections
in Gujarat consecutively and later on
becoming PM of the country bucking all the opposition from all these
hatemongers against him. However, all these anti Modi forces, even after Modi
became PM, didn’t reconcile. They
were/are unable to digest , how Modi can become a PM and continue to be so despite so much of
stiff opposition from them. In a nutshell, they were down but not out in their
anti Modi-ism. They were looking for opportunities to strike back at him. Their
first moment of glory came, when BJP lost the elections very badly in Delhi. After long time there was huge
smile on the faces of these people over an embarrassing defeat of Modi in
Delhi. However their crowning moment of glory has come now, when BJP has lost
elections in Bihar so terribly to Lalu-Nitish. As they could smell the defeat
of NDA in Bihar at least two weeks ahead of actual results, they all were
keying up for actual results day. And
much to their expectation and delight, NDA lost in Bihar and lost so
convincingly and terribly to Lalu &
Nitish, who after 2014 General
Elections, were being totally written off by all the political analysts.Now during this
crowning moment of their glory, these hatemongers are unable to hide glee from their faces. The Bihar elections
results, which was majorly an outcome of
better caste plus minority community arithmetic of Nitish-Lalu combine
over NDA, is being interpreted as
victory of secularism over communal politics of BJP and no confidence of people
expressed in eighteen months’ old Modi led NDA rule at centre. All these anti
Modi forces are so much gloating over defeat of BJP in Bihar that in this
defeat they are visualizing rout of BJP from different regions one by one and
by mid of 2019, they expect their long time bête noire Narendra Modi to be
wiped off completely from national politics.
Well, as the situation stands
today, defeat of BJP/NDA in upcoming assembly elections and finally Narendra
Modi led NDA in 2019 general elections mayn’t be a far fetched imagination. As
it looks like out of several states(West Bengal, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry,UP,Assam etc, where
assembly elections are due in next two years )BJP seems to have brightest prospects of capturing
power in Assam only and considering current disenchantment of people with Modi Govt at centre, even demoralizing defeat(like Cong’s in 2014)
of Narendra Modi led NDA in 2019 mayn’t
be too surprising.
However, before visualizing such
a demoralizing prospects for Narendra Modi and BJP/NDA, we must remember,
nothing is permanent in politics. As a
political leader/party, one may be considered
to be dead; however quite possible you may rise like a phoenix just after 6 months-1 year only. Who
would have imagined in May 2014 that
after such a crushing defeat of Arvind Kejriwal led AAP nationally, he would bounce back with thunder in
Delhi assembly elections just
within eight months only. And
again,after 2014 general elections,
when Nitish and lalu were being totally
written off would win the Bihar elections with almost 3/4th majority
just within eighteen months only. In Politics, you can’t expect any scenario
to be permanent. If within a short period(8 months-18 months), if Arvind
Kejriwal, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad can rise like phoenix, how is it
that Narendra Modi with 42 months of tenure still left,why can’t he bounce back like his political adversaries? Well answer to the same lies
with Narendra Modi himself. In case, Narendra Modi considers results of Bihar assembly elections as a wake up
call for him and utilizes learning
from his failures to change his
conduct, the way his Govt and BJP as an organization are functioning currently,
I am sure, Narendra Modi, with so much of good will still being enjoyed among his followers, can again bounce back. However for that he may have to
drastically change himself the way he has been conducting and the way his Govt/Party
has been functioning currently.
Change of perception of a Flamboyant PM with Boisterous idiosyncrasies
needed: -As, I come across feedback
from various people, who were/continue
to be his die hard supporters, Narendra
Modi caught the imagination of people as a leader having very humble family/chaiwalaa roots; however over last eighteen months has assumed an image of a flamboyant PM
in the minds of ordinary people. He is perceived to be very ostentatious
and extravagant the way he dresses
himself ( his 10 lakh suit story just before Delhi elections cost his image very high).His boisterous interactions with
foreign leaders and people while being on foreign tours also don’t seem to gel
well with people who earlier looked at him as a chaiwalaa with humble family
roots and now is unable
to reconcile with his new found flamboyant image. As, I feel and
understand, Narendra Modi, in future has to consciously help shed such image of
himself recently created in the minds of people.
Overdose of Foreign visits need to be curbed:-His overdose of
foreign visits during last eighteen months also seem to have spoiled his image
among the masses to a great extent. While, a limited no. of people, who understand economic/political
sense of his numerous foreign tours, common masses seem to be completely
disillusioned with the same. For them, when on
the domestic front, several issues, need urgent attention and action from PM, his
unending series of foreign tours appear
to be his wrong priority.
Wrong prioritization of Goals:-Wrong prioritization of social/economic
development goals also appear to be failing of PM Narendra Modi. While his
swachch bharat, Yoga and beti bachao campaigns may be great social campaigns;
however they fail to strike right chords
of common masses as these social campaigns, don’t help resolve their
daily needs/problems related to roti, Kapdaa, makaan, rojgaar,price rise of
food articles, corruption in their daily
walks of life etc.
Wrong prortization of goals also
appear to be reflected in the development vision of PM Narendra Modi. While Smart city,
Digital India, Make in India campaigns may be great development goals for
country; however they all have long gestation period and in order to see them
happening before his eyes under his
leadership, Narendra Modi need at least two more tenures as PM and
for that he need to win two more elections. I doubt, when people have
become so restless within eighteen
months, whether they would like to wait
till that long. Talk of Launching of
Bullet trains also don’t seem to be going down well with masses. While Indian
Railways continue to struggle providing even basic comforts to people
travelling in normal trains; talking of Bullet train sounds like cruel joke to
masses. Narendra Modi, while continuing to pursue the above long term economic goals, may do well by picking
up short term economic goals, which can
be achieved quickly and help solve/ improve daily economic needs of people.
Change in Perception about being pro corporate/pro industrial houses needed:-Govt.
should try to change perception of people about the Govt from being pro corporate to pro poor. Some how due to
a systematic campaign of the
adversaries of the govt., Modi Govt is perceived by common masses to be pro
industrial houses especially closer to
couple of industrial houses. At the
moment, most of the vital parameters of economy viz. fiscal deficit, current
account deficit, foreign exchange reserves, Inflation etc. appear to be in much
better health and GDP forecasts for next three years also appear to be optimistic
compared to last three years. This is the time Govt may afford to be slightly more
generous towards common masses. While subsidy may be a bad form of economics; however small doses of subsidy
giving relief to common masses on various utilities/services provided by the
govt, may without burdening economy much may give relief to common masses and change
the perception of the people
about the Govt. from being pro corporate to pro aam aadmi.
More Welfare orientation in approach needed:-Govt should also avoid
conducting like a private industrial houses, always on look out for ways and
means to fill their coffers at the cost of their customers. Sound economics
can’t be the sole concern of a Govt
responsible towards welfare of the common masses. In the present context ,
in the name of clean India initiative imposing swachh Bharat cess of 0.5 % on
all services liable for service tax has
become a hugely unpopular measure and everyone is feeling bitter about it.
Similarly, doubling cancellation charges
by railways also seem to be pinching every common man travelling by
railways. Common masses look at both these measures as desperate attempts of Govt to fill its coffer at the discomfort of common
masses. Do these unpopular measures help
the Modi govt? Even If they are
trying to fill the coffer through these
unpopular measures, they are doing for whom? For future Governments of
Congress or 3rd front? Through these unpopular measures, they can
only antagonize the masses and such unpopular measures will only cause them lose future elections and hence pursuing some of these unpopular measures are severely proscribed.
Promises must be fulfilled timely and completely:-Also, Govt need
to be more pragmatic while dealing with popular demands of different sections
of society. It is important that Govt should be seen fulfilling its promises
without any delay while dealing
with popular and genuine demands of
people. If you delay fulfilling your
promises and seem to be meeting the same half way after long drawn protests
from people, as a Govt , despite meeting
the demands of people ultimately, you lose good
will of the people. One Rank, One
Pension is a classic case of the same.PM assured ex service men
about OROP and got their votes in drove;
however after coming to power delayed
implementation of the same for a very
long time. And later on despite its
implementation, due to disagreements on cut off dates and exclusion of a
large section of retired defence staff
members, the move has left vast
sections of it (retired as well as current staff)dissatisfied. Should the Govt
not realize that by meeting their demand only half way, it has antagonized millions of ex and existing
defence staff members and their families across India and for that Narendra Modi Govt led BJP may have to pay
heavy price for the same in future assembly elections and ultimately during general elections in 2019?Same is the case of Delhi High court
amendment bill.Although Govt has ultimately passed it after popular protests
from thousands of District Court lawyers from Delhi; however the govt took so
much of time in implementing it that it has created hardly any good
will among the larger sections of
protesting lawyers despite implementing it, the way it was meant. Point is Modi Govt should be seen to be fulfilling its promises timely
otherwise even if same are met but after long protests, it
won’t create any good will and mayn’t help him in future elections.
Also, the Govt should know, it has to add votes from different sections of society in small increments and hence
can’t afford to ignore any of them.
Controlling Price rise of food and Vegetables:-Giving cushion to
common masses from rising prices of essential food & vegetable items should
be of biggest concern for Modi Govt as ignoring the same has partly cost it
two recent elections, higher onion
prices during Delhi assembly elections
and higher pulse prices during Bihar
assembly elections. . While, inflation as a whole has come down quite
low during last eighteen months; however prices of food items and vegetables
continue to be on higher side. Modi Govt must know that prices of food items
& vegetables hurt common masses especially housewives most and hence the
same may be accorded topmost priority by the Govt. As, it was recently
noticed that women participated
during voting for Bihar elections more than their counterparts and they expressed
their anger against soaring pulse prices by voting massively against NDA.
Generation of Jobs, should be topmost priority:-Generation of jobs
should also be of topmost priority for
the govt. Narendra Modi should have
remembered that his govt
was voted to
power majorly with the support of
youth as they hoped that Narendra Modi’s
development agenda will take care of their unemployment issue. However,
on this front, Govt has failed miserably so far. While, there is hardly employment generation by
private sector because of poor business
conditions, even Govt continues to impose freeze on hiring at differnet levels
in various govt organizations. Until govt unleashes economic reforms swiftly in order to boost economic activities
and generate jobs fast, govt would continue to fail to enthuse youth, which continues to remain disenchanted
towards Modi Govt. For generating
jobs, Govt can’t solely depend upon large
industrial houses rather it should support SME (Small Medium
Enterprises) sector also for faster job creation.
Cabinet lacking in enough talent:-It appears that Modi cabinet seems
to be lacking in enough talent. PM Modi can’t continue to count on ability of a few
senior ministers alone for delivery.
Governance and administration require experience. Age can’t be an
inhibiting factor in performance,
provided one is physically fit and mentally alert. After one and half years, PM Modi must realize that putting
an embargo on the basis of 75+ years, he is
deprived of experience of some of the promising elders in his ministry.
For example, General Khanduri despite being
on the wrong side of age, might have
proved a very successful minister
as he had earlier proved in the ministry of Vajpayee Ji. Example of success of Metro
Man Sreedharan as Head of DMRC, while
being 75+ years of age,
shows that age always can’t be an
inhibiting factor in performance.
Projection of Credible CM face for each state needed:-On the
political front, Narendra Modi can’t continue to solely depend upon his individual
charisma alone to take his party through in state assembly elections. Now
people have grown wiser, they tend to
distinguish between demands for Parliamentary and state assembly elections.
After parliamentary elections, BJP could win three elections in Haryana,
Jharkhand, Maharashtra riding on the back of popularity of Modi soon after
parliamentary elections due to two reasons: firstly,PM’s personal popularity
remained very high till then,secondly, BJP didn’t have to fight a credible face
on the other side. However, as soon as BJP had to confront a credible CM face
on the other side, personal charisma of
PM Modi didn’t help it sail through
as people of Delhi thought while Modi
was a better option for PM at the centre, for local level , Arvind Kejriwal
was a better option for CM .Same has
happened in Bihar too. As people of Bihar had
a credible CM option for them, they preferred him over BJP, which didn’t
offer any CM face during Bihar
elections. Point is from next time onwards, while Modi may campaign extensively however he
shouldn’t be seen to be taking on clear CM
faces from other side.The need for hour
is to develop more of Shivrajs, Ramans for different states so that BJP
can offer clear credible CM option from
their side to people. It may also insulate PM personally
from direct personality contests from adversary sides. Delhi is a classic case.
In the absence of any powerful face from
its side at state level, who can engage Arvind Kejriwal on local issues, he is
found to be engaged in direct personality battles with PM Modi. Hope, Nitish doesn’t do the same from now onwards. Until, BJP has strong & credible
local CM faces like Shivraj Chauhan and Raman Singh, who can insulate PM Modi from direct personality contest with
local leaders from states, PM
unnecessarily will continue to be dragged into needless duel with local leaders
from adversary sides.
No deviation from development agenda:-BJP can’t lose focus from
development agenda which was its mainstay during 2014 General elections.As
results of last two assembly elections may show any deviation from the same and
to personal attacks may backfire. Personal attacks on Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi
& on Lalu and Nitish in Bihar, instead
of denting their image/poll
prospects, amassed huge sympathy for them.
Hotheads
conducting like Hindu Talibans must be reined in:-Also, PM Modi should rein
in those often conducting like hindu talibans.Hindus are liberal and they don’t
like radicalization on religious issues. While Modi Ji should continue to stick
to hindutva in a positive but subtle manner
like always, he should rein in his hot
heads making offensive & abusive
statements against minorities. Such uncalled for statements, unite/polarize
minorities to vote against BJP decisively without any corresponding polarization
among Hindus for BJP.In this regard, RSS and its affiliates may be advised to
work for food, health,education,
employment of poor masses among hindus and thus improve its access and acceptability among poor
hindus.RSS and its affiliates must know, they can’t unite hindu community until they work for health, education,food and
employment of poor masses. Sadly, despite, several decades of their
existence, their appeal seems to be more among upper caste and slightly better
off hindus only.This is the reason, why
even BJP has lesser appeal among lesser affluent sections of society.Until, BJP
doesn’t improve its access and acceptability among poorer sections of society,
its victory can’t be consistent.As Raman Singh in Chattisgarh & Shivraj
Singh Chauhan in M.P. through their various economic measures have improved
their acceptability among poorer
sections of society, they continue to be returned to power in their states.
More seriousness needed in bringing back black money:-Most
importantly, Modi Govt must deliver on
its promises made on bringing back black
money. While people mayn’t expect the promise of PM modi of transferring
15 lakh to individual accounts of
everybody in literal sense; however Govt must be seen to be making
serious efforts at least of bringing
back black money. Until Govt really catches few big fishes and prosecute and punish them, common masses may continue
to feel ditched by Modi Govt on its
poll promises made on black
money.
In a nutshell, PM Modi has to go back
to its poll manifesto and try to
fulfill them one by one silently without
making any boisterous claims. After one and half years, even if PM Modi
achieves 30% of its poll promises, his credibility with voters shall be restored and he will be voted back to
power once again as supporters of PM
Modi continue to exist in large no and
continue to love him from core of their hearts.Once delivery of PM Modi starts
showing on the ground,he will retrieve
all his support, which he has lost
during recent months.
While, it may look extremely
disappointing scenario currently for PM
Modi for future assembly elections and 2019 General elections; however once he
is seen to be delivering, he will again bounce back. All right thinking people may hope
and pray that PM Modi gets back
into groove and start delivering, what
people initially expected of him.If it happens, country will be fortunate as
country needs Modi for at least one more term after the current one so that Modi achieves the dreams shown by him to millions
of Indians to help India become a
nation counted among the most developed
and powerful nations of the world.
Will Modi Deliver?Well, as we
know, Modi has the potential to fulfill the dream he showed to people in 2014; however whether he delivers it or
not shall depend upon his will power and
determination. If he has learnt lessons well from poll debacles in Delhi & Bihar and shows
commitment to improve, he will be a
winner, otherwise BJP’s position in
parliament after 2019 elections will be
a mirror image of
Congress after 2014 parliament elections.
